Trucking Careers · Nationwide · October 25, 2026

Thinking About Buying a Truck? Higher Rates Don't Guarantee Profits

A thoughtful man rubs his chin while a seller with a clipboard explains, beside a glossy black semi on a sunny dealer lot — Illustration for this story. Not a photo of a specific location.

Freight rates are rising, especially on the spot market, and that has some company drivers thinking about buying a truck and going out on their own. A column in The Trucker urges caution.

The Oct. 23 column was written by Cliff Abbott, a longtime driver and owner-operator. The points below are his, along with the industry sources he cites.

Costs keep climbing

Abbott cites the American Transportation Research Institute's 2026 update to its operational costs analysis, which found the total cost of running a truck, including driver pay and benefits, was $2.37 a mile in 2025. Preliminary data show further increases, with insurance premiums leading the way at 6.4%, according to the column.

Abbott also writes that trucks, parts, maintenance, tolls and tires cost more, and that driver pay has risen substantially for anyone planning to hire.

Financing is harder

When the pandemic boom ended and rates fell, lenders were left with thousands of repossessed and surrendered trucks, Abbott writes. Many tightened their requirements, asking for larger down payments and better credit, and some wanted business plans. In his view, it is more difficult to get financing today than a few years ago.

The fuel surcharge lag

Fuel surcharges can help, Abbott writes, but most are based on the Energy Information Administration's weekly average fuel price report, released every Monday except holidays. If fuel prices change on a Tuesday, the surcharge does not adjust until the following Monday.

Why rates are up

According to the column, today's higher rates are driven mostly by shrinking trucking capacity, not by more freight.

If freight demand grows while trucking capacity stays limited, rates could soar, the column says. "They will surge," Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT Freight and Analytics, is quoted as saying. "Freight rates will go through the roof."

But the cycle tends to repeat, Abbott writes. "When truckers are making money, they buy trucks," is the mantra of Ken Veith, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, according to the column. As more trucks enter the market, competition pushes rates back down.