Big Rigs · Nationwide · November 13, 2026

Kearney and MIT Report Says Driverless Trucks Could Match the Cost of Trucks With Truck Drivers Around 2028

By Big Rig Daily Staff

A truck with nobody behind the wheel could cost about the same per mile as a truck with a truck driver by around 2028, according to a report from the consulting firm Kearney and a research group at MIT, FreightWaves reports.

The numbers

The report puts the current cost of a driverless truck at about $4 a mile, compared with about $2.50 for a truck with a driver. The two lines cross around 2028, at roughly $2.60 a mile, the report says.

By 2035, it projects a driverless truck could drop to about $2 a mile.

Why the U.S. would get there first

American truck drivers cost the most, the report says. It puts a fully loaded long-haul driver, with benefits, at about $10,000 a month, and says about half of a truck's cost per mile goes to the driver.

The catch

Those projections depend on about 40,000 driverless trucks being on the road by 2035. If there are only 10,000, the break-even point could slip to 2032.

Liability is also unsettled. When something goes wrong, it is not yet clear whether the carrier, the truck maker or the software company is responsible.

Why it matters to truckers

The report is a forecast, not a timeline anyone has committed to, and it hinges on a fleet size no company has reached. Earlier this year one developer missed its own goal of 200 driverless trucks. Still, cost studies like this one shape where investors and carriers put their money.

Quick facts

• Driverless truck today: about $4 a mile.
• Truck with a driver: about $2.50 a mile.
• Projected parity: around 2028, about $2.60 a mile.
• Condition: about 40,000 driverless trucks by 2035; with 10,000, parity could slip to 2032.

A question for readers

Truckers, would you feel comfortable sharing the interstate with a truck that has nobody behind the wheel?

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