Trucking News · Nationwide · November 6, 2026

ATA's Bob Costello Says Trucking Is in an Early Supply-Driven Recovery as Shipper Spending Jumped 32% in Q3

By Big Rig Daily Staff

American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello told a U.S. Bank economic update that trucking is only at the beginning of a supply-driven recovery after a prolonged downcycle, Transport Topics reports. Shipments across regions were roughly flat in the third quarter year over year, he said, while shipper spending jumped 32% in that same quarter.

What Costello said about the market

Costello described the turn as driven by supply, not a surge in freight demand. "Broadly speaking, the freight market is not super strong," he said, according to Transport Topics, while still arguing the market has turned because capacity has come down. He said carriers left the market after years of weak rates and high costs, then a second phase began around spring 2025 as driver enforcement tightened, court rulings landed and diesel stayed high.

Department of Transportation crackdowns on non-domiciled commercial licenses, the English proficiency rule and problem training schools are part of that squeeze, Transport Topics reports. Customs and Border Protection is also working with the department on B-1 visa misuse, Costello said.

Regional example

In Texas, Costello said shipments are down 12.9% so far this year while shipper spending is up 37%. He pointed to states with high exposure to cross-border freight as places where the spending-versus-shipment gap is especially clear.

What he does not expect

Costello said he does not see a recession on the horizon right now, though he would watch for one as a risk to the recovery. He also said he does not expect election turnover to unwind the safety-tied enforcement push, Transport Topics reports.

Why it matters to truckers

Fewer trucks can support better rates. They can also mean fewer seats if the wrong capacity leaves. The 32% jump in shipper spending with flat shipments is Costello's measure of a tighter market, not a promise that every trucker's pay has already moved.

Quick facts

• Shipper spending, third quarter: up 32% year over year, per Costello.
• Shipments: roughly flat year over year in the third quarter.
• Texas example: shipments down 12.9% year to date, spending up 37%.
• Framing: early supply-driven recovery, not a demand boom.

FAQ

Who reported Costello's trucking recovery assessment?

Transport Topics reported Costello's remarks from his U.S. Bank economic update.

Does ATA's Costello expect a recession soon?

He said he does not see one on the horizon right now, while calling it something to watch.

Will politics reverse the trucking enforcement push Costello cited?

Costello said he does not expect election changes to unwind safety-tied enforcement, according to Transport Topics.

A question for readers

Truckers, if shippers are already paying 32% more while loads barely move, are you feeling a real recovery yet, or just a tighter market?

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