Trucking News · Multi-state · November 9, 2026

Truckers: Study Says Rail Merger Would Cut Highway Miles

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Image caption: Illustration: AI-generated illustration, not a photo of the people, vehicles or places in this story. It shows a generic semi at a rail container yard.

Commercial Carrier Journal summarizes an economist study by William Michael Cunningham saying a proposed Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger would move about 2.1 million truckloads a year from highways to rail, cutting roughly 2.1 billion long-distance truck miles. The $85 billion transaction remains under Surface Transportation Board review.

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, in their merger filing, said they want to increase rail's share of traffic and remove trucks from highways, projecting conversion of more than 2 million truckloads. Some large trucking companies are described as supporting the deal.

Local trips and competing views

The study estimates Chicago alone could lose 250,000 to 500,000 local truck trips a year. Supporters frame that as less congestion at rail yards. Every shifted long-haul load is also freight that would not pay a long-haul trucker. Short-haul and drayage patterns could change differently from coast-to-coast truckload work.

These figures are study estimates and company filings, not a completed merger outcome. Regulatory review can still alter or reject the transaction.

FAQ

Is the merger already approved?

No. It is under Surface Transportation Board review.

Whose study produces the 2.1 million truckload figure?

Economist William Michael Cunningham's study as reported by CCJ.

Does a coast-to-coast rail single line help local drayage work more than it hurts long-haul truckload demand?

Sources: ccjdigital.com.

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