Trucking News · Nationwide · October 30, 2026

Knight-Swift CEO Expects Truckload Contract Rates to Rise at Least in the Mid-Teens in 2027 as Fewer Trucks Mean Truckers Reject More Loads

By Big Rig Daily Staff

The CEO of the largest truckload carrier in North America says contract rates are headed higher next year. Knight-Swift Transportation CEO Adam Miller said October 27 that contract truckload rates are set to rise by "no less than the mid-teens" in percentage terms in 2027, on top of 2026's increases, Transport Topics reported on Oct. 29. He spoke at the 2026 WEX OTR Summit.

Why he expects higher rates

"When you look at the margin profile of the big truckers, it's still not exceeding your weighted average cost of capital. There's still not reasonable margins. And so we're going to have to push that further," Miller said.

He said rates are also likely to keep rising because of unusual tender rejection levels, meaning contracted loads that carriers turn down. "Tender rejections are very elevated relative to where they were the last three years, but demand is not. It's not been driven by demand. It's very unique because most upcycles are largely driven by demand improvements," he told Transport Topics.

Transport Topics reported that the latest upturn is being driven by capacity reductions, largely from federal enforcement initiatives and the Supreme Court's Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II ruling, which has also weeded out noncompliant and the cheapest carriers. "If demand picks up with capacity coming out, we could be in a period where you see rejections elevate even to levels that you saw during the pandemic," Miller said.

Rates may change more often

Miller said contract rates are set to change more often than shippers are used to. As rates rise, shippers will walk away from some carrier proposals, and fleets will step back and insist a deal does not make sense at a lower rate. "Two weeks later, you get a mini-bid with that same lane and you're able to bid it again. And they make decisions really quick on the mini-bids," he said.

Knight-Swift's numbers

Knight-Swift's truckload division saw third quarter 2026 revenue rise 14% year over year to $1.41 billion from $1.24 billion as rates climbed. The unit's operating income rose to $123.1 million from $35.9 million, which is more than triple, according to the company's Oct. 21 results as cited by Transport Topics.

Miller also said demand in the fourth quarter will remain steady even as more capacity leaves the market, and that he expects "a fairly strong peak season for the first time in many years."

What this does not mean

These are Miller's expectations, not guaranteed rates, and they come from the head of a large carrier that benefits from higher rates. The report does not say how much of any increase would reach truckers or smaller carriers.

Quick facts

• Who: Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation.
• When: remarks Oct. 27, 2026, at the WEX OTR Summit.
• Outlook: contract truckload rates up at least the mid-teens in 2027, on top of 2026.
• Truckload division, third quarter: revenue up 14% to $1.41 billion, operating income up to $123.1 million from $35.9 million.
• Cause he cites: capacity leaving the market, not stronger demand.

Big Rig Daily has also covered Knight-Swift's earlier double digit rate comments and how Knight-Swift's brokerage carrier pool shrank 70%.

A question for readers

If rates really climb that much, will the small owner-operator see any of it?

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