Trucking News · Nationwide · November 1, 2026

Truckers Face Diesel Above $4 All Through 2027, Federal Forecast Says, as Price Hits $6.352 a Gallon

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Diesel is more expensive than it was a year ago, and the government's own forecast says truckers should not expect relief soon. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) put the national average for on-highway diesel at $6.352 a gallon on Oct. 26, up 7.6 cents from the prior week and $2.634 above a year earlier, according to The Trucker.

The forecast

EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 6, forecasts that diesel will average $5.19 a gallon in 2026 and $4.49 in 2027. That is still 83 cents above the 2025 average of $3.66. EIA raised its forecast in October, moving the 2027 number from $4.40 to $4.49. The agency expects diesel to stay above $4 throughout 2027.

Winter supply

East Coast distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were 32% below the five-year seasonal average in September, according to the report. They are expected to stay 20% to 30% below average through the winter.

The math for one truck

The Trucker offered an example based on EIA's averages. A truck running 100,000 miles a year at 6 miles per gallon burns about 16,667 gallons. At $5.19 a gallon, that is about $86,500 in fuel. At $4.49, it is about $74,833. These are estimates for illustration, and actual costs depend on the truck, the route and where fuel is bought.

How this fits the bigger picture

Big Rig Daily has been tracking fuel and freight rates. A report on diesel up 69% in a year covered the October monthly figure and what it means for spot rates, and a report on wholesale diesel swinging 80 cents looked at how fast prices can move. An analysis of why one executive thinks diesel stays high until spring explains the supply side.

Who feels it most

Large fleets often have fuel surcharges and bulk discounts, while an owner-operator with one truck pays pump prices like everyone else. The forecast does not say how any fuel surcharge programs will adjust, and Big Rig Daily is not predicting them.

Quick facts

• National average: $6.352 a gallon on Oct. 26, 2026.
• Change: up 7.6 cents in a week, $2.634 above a year earlier.
• EIA forecast: $5.19 for 2026 and $4.49 for 2027, above $4 throughout 2027.
• 2025 average: $3.66.
• East Coast distillate stocks: 32% below the five-year average in September.

FAQ

What is the national average diesel price as of Oct. 26, 2026?

EIA put it at $6.352 a gallon on Oct. 26, 2026, according to The Trucker.

Will diesel fall below $4 in 2027?

EIA expects diesel to stay above $4 throughout 2027, with a forecast average of $4.49 for the year.

Why could winter make diesel supply tighter?

East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below the five-year seasonal average in September and are expected to stay 20% to 30% below through the winter.

A question for readers

Owner-operators, how much has diesel changed the way you pick loads this year?

Save this story for later

Save this to Pinterest