Trucking News · Nationwide · October 31, 2026

Diesel Is Up 69% in a Year, Eating Into the Biggest Freight Rate Gains Truckers Have Seen in Years

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Freight rates are climbing for truckers, but diesel is climbing faster. Diesel averaged $3.68 per gallon nationally in October 2025, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). With a national average of $6.22 for October 2026, diesel costs have risen 69% over the past year, "consuming a huge portion of the increased revenues," The Trucker reported on Oct. 30.

Where diesel is highest

The West Coast remains the most expensive place to buy diesel, with California "far and away the most expensive at over $8 per gallon," according to the report. Land Line reported the AAA national diesel average was $6.32 on Oct. 30.

Rates are up too

The freight market is showing signs of recovery, The Trucker reported. According to the DAT Freight & Analytics Trendlines report, dry van spot rates rose 4.2% in September from August and were 46.8% higher than September 2025. Refrigerated spot rates rose 6.8% from August and were up 48.8% from a year earlier. Flatbed rates rose 2.3% from August and were 44.2% higher than September 2025.

Tim Denoyer of ACT Research said, "After dropping in Q3, due mostly to spiking diesel costs, spot rates are rebounding in October as capacity tightens earlier than usual this year." He added, "If it's already tight now, it's a pretty good bet it will still be tight when holiday seasonality reduces capacity in a few weeks."

The Cass Freight Index for September showed shipments up 1.9% from September 2025, and the second consecutive year over year gain in shipments after 3.5 years of declines, The Trucker reported.

What forecasters expect

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 6, predicted that oil flows from the Middle East will "remain constrained" through the rest of 2026. The EIA also raised its Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel, up $14 from its September estimate. East Coast distillate fuel inventories were 32% below their five year average, the report said. Fuel costs have declined slightly in the past few weeks but are expected to remain high, according to The Trucker.

What the report does not say

The report does not say how much of the higher spot rates reached owner-operators or small carriers, and spot rates are only part of the freight market. Contract rates typically lag behind spot rates, according to The Trucker. Big Rig Daily is not estimating what any one trucker takes home.

Quick facts

• Diesel, national average (EIA): $3.68 in October 2025 and $6.22 in October 2026, up 69%.
• California: over $8 a gallon.
• DAT spot rates in September versus a year earlier: dry van up 46.8%, refrigerated up 48.8%, flatbed up 44.2%.
• EIA outlook: Middle East oil flows to remain constrained through 2026.

Big Rig Daily has also covered why one analyst expects diesel to stay high until spring and how much more diesel costs a truck per day.

A question for readers

How much has fuel changed what you charge, or what you take home, this year?

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