Dry Van Spot Rates Jump to Their Highest Level Since July in Early November, Unusually Early for the Holidays

Truck drivers and carriers who haul freight on the spot market, the load-by-load market where rates change daily instead of being locked in by contract, saw rates climb in early November earlier than usual for the holiday season.
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The jump
The National Truckload Index, a FreightWaves measure of dry van spot rates across the U.S., climbed to its highest level since July in early November, FreightWaves reports in its Chart of the Week. The index rarely rises this early ahead of the holidays, according to the analysis by market analyst Zach Strickland.
A dry van is the standard enclosed box trailer that hauls most everyday goods.
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Not mainly about fuel
The index includes fuel. But diesel costs have fallen roughly 3.5% since late October, while the index has risen more than 4% over the same period, FreightWaves said. The analysis said it is difficult to tie the recent jump cleanly to fuel.
Last-minute freight
Dr. Zac Rogers, co-author of the Logistics Managers' Index, said on the Freightonomics podcast that many retailers appear to have waited until the last minute to bring inventory into the country. The index's inventory level reading for October was 66.9, the highest for that part of the index since 2022.
At the same time, national dry van rejection rates, a measure of how often carriers turn down contract loads, have been trending lower since July, though they remain elevated. That suggests the extra demand is showing up mostly on the spot market, not in contract freight, according to the analysis.
FreightWaves also said some freight may be shifting back from rail to truck after recent disruptions at BNSF and CSX.
What it means
Higher spot rates help carriers who book loads off load boards. Carriers on fixed contract rates may not see the same bump. Big Rig Daily reported in late October that spot rates had fallen for all three equipment types, so the market has moved quickly.
A question for readers
Are better spot offers showing up this month, or are the rates on the usual lanes about the same?
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Sources
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