Trucking News · Nationwide · October 28, 2026

Freight Index Warns Truckers and Shoppers of Record Holiday Delivery Prices

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Higher diesel prices are no longer just a problem for truckers and carriers, and shoppers may feel it this holiday season. The latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index indicates that the highest-ever holiday season delivery prices are a real possibility as shippers face record costs, Land Line reported on Tuesday, Oct. 27.

What the index predicts

The index analyzes pricing for the truckload, less-than-truckload and parcel markets. According to Land Line, it predicts:

• The highest truckload rates since the first quarter of 2022.
• Less-than-truckload rates more than 80% above the January 2018 baseline for the first time ever.
• A record ground parcel rate per package in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• An express parcel index at a record high for the fifth quarter in a row.

What the firm behind it says

"We expect fuel to drive elevated transportation costs for the foreseeable future," said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics. "Inventories are low and refineries are at capacity, so even if crude oil prices drop in the coming months, diesel and jet fuel supplies must still catch up before prices recede."

AFS Logistics also said fuel surcharges will not "show a material decrease" even if crude oil and fuel prices normalize, Land Line reported.

Parcel carriers and rail

Land Line noted that FedEx recently increased its general rate fees and reclassified more than 2,500 ZIP codes to its most expensive delivery area surcharge tier.

Many shippers are also shifting freight from highways to railways to offset record fuel costs, Land Line reported. The widening gap between truckload and intermodal pricing is one of the biggest trends this year, according to C.H. Robinson, which also said railcar shortages may lengthen lead times in some places.

What it means for truckers

For truckers, the forecast points in the same direction as other recent data: tight capacity, higher rates and fuel costs that surcharges may not fully cover. The index is a forecast, not a measure of what any carrier or trucker has been paid.

Quick facts

• Index: TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index (latest edition).
• Truckload: Highest rates predicted since the first quarter of 2022.
• Less-than-truckload: More than 80% above the January 2018 baseline, a first.
• Parcel: Record ground rate per package predicted for the fourth quarter of 2026.

Big Rig Daily has also covered why railroads say high diesel is moving freight off trucks, what $6 diesel costs a truck each day and contract rates resetting 13% higher. To estimate fuel costs on a trip, use the truck fuel cost calculator.

A question for readers

Are the shippers and brokers you work with passing higher rates and fuel costs on to you, or absorbing them?

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