Trucking News · Nationwide · November 4, 2026

Trucking Capacity Has Shrunk for 11 Straight Months, the October Logistics Managers' Index Says, a Sign of a Tight Market for Truckers and Shippers

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Trucking capacity contracted for an 11th straight month in October, according to the Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) released Nov. 3, 2026, and as FreightWaves reported. The transportation capacity reading was 38. The index is a diffusion index, so a reading above 50 signals expansion and a reading below 50 signals contraction.

The key numbers

• Transportation capacity: 38, down from 54.5 a year ago. FreightWaves says the pace of contraction was 3.6 points slower than in September.
• Transportation prices: 88, up from 61.7 last October, and expected to climb above 90 over the next 12 months, according to survey respondents.
• Transportation utilization: 63.5, still increasing but at a slower pace than in September.
• Overall LMI: 70.7, up from 70.2 in September and the second-highest reading in four years.
• Inventories: 66.9, up 8 points from September and the fastest growth rate in four years, FreightWaves says in a companion report.

What the report says about rates

Julie Van de Kamp said in a FreightWaves interview that capacity "is at 38. It's continuing to sit in that contraction portion of the report at under 50 for the 11th straight month." She cited Sonar data in the LMI report showing new truckload contracts are up 13.11% over the rates they replace, and said she expects capacity to stay constrained "certainly into 2027."

FreightWaves also reported that spot rates are up nearly 47% from a year ago and that contract rates are up nearly 20%, at a 52-week high. Diesel is above $6 a gallon, which FreightWaves puts at a 71% year-over-year increase in one article and 70% in a companion report.

Carriers and the holiday push

The LMI report said that after a year of caution, firms are "pulling inventories in as quickly as they can" to try to take advantage of a holiday season they hope will be a blockbuster. FreightWaves reports that Knight-Swift Transportation, which has roughly 70% of its truckload fleet under non-dedicated agreements, is targeting "at least double-digit" rate increases as annual contract negotiations begin, and that it is seeing the most peak-season project freight in its network since the pandemic. For more, see Big Rig Daily's reports on contract rates resetting about 13% higher and Knight-Swift's 2027 rate outlook.

What it may mean for truckers

Tight capacity can improve rates for carriers, but costs have risen too. As Big Rig Daily has reported, diesel is up about 69% in a year, and the sources do not say how much of the higher pricing reaches the people driving the trucks. The LMI measures what logistics managers report, not what any one carrier or owner-operator earns.

Quick facts

• Report: October Logistics Managers' Index, released Nov. 3, 2026.
• Capacity: 38 (below 50 means contraction); 11th straight month.
• Prices: 88.
• New contract rates: up 13.11% from the rates they replace, per Sonar data cited in the report.
• Outlook: respondents expect a capacity reading of 49.3 and a pricing reading of 90 over the next year.

FAQ

What does a capacity reading of 38 mean?

It means logistics managers report that trucking capacity is shrinking. Anything below 50 on the index is contraction.

Who produces the LMI?

FreightWaves says it is a collaboration among five universities, conducted with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.

Does this mean owner-operators earn more?

The sources do not say. They describe rising prices across the market, not what any individual earns.

A question for readers

Owner-operators, are you seeing the tighter market in your settlements, or mostly in your costs?

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