Trucking Careers · Nationwide · October 28, 2026

DAT Analyst Says Truck Driver Pay Is Only Pausing and Warns of a Reckoning Over Dock Hours

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Update, 4:53 a.m. PT Oct. 28, 2026: Added a table of the driver pay index readings.

Truck driver pay has hit a pause, not a turn downward, according to Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. Croke expects pay to climb again once freight demand returns, The Trucker reported in a piece from the Truckload Authority magazine of the Truckload Carriers Association.

What the pay index shows

Croke pointed to the Superior Trucking Payroll Service (STPS) Driver Pay Index, which tracks actual gross pay, including per diem, for W-2 truck drivers at participating small and midsize carriers. Unlike advertised cents-per-mile rates, he said, it reflects real payroll data.

The index hit an all-time high of 170.04 in June 2026, measured against a January 2020 baseline of 100. By September it had fallen to 154.13, still above the 141.9 recorded in January 2023. Croke said the dip reflects seasonal freight patterns rather than a reversal. "I think it's a pause," he said.

Why he expects pay to rise

Croke said driver supply has "cooled down a little bit" since the July Fourth seasonal peak, and he noted a lack of pay-increase headlines since then. He pointed to three things that could shrink the pool of truckers:

• Tighter English language proficiency and immigration status standards.
• Pressure on CDL training schools, which he said will slow the number of new truckers entering the industry.
• Hair testing, if it is brought in for pre-employment and random drug tests, which he said would tighten the market further.

Freight rates are already moving, he said, even with flat demand. Spot rates are 35% higher year over year, and contract rates are repricing about 12% to 15% higher, which Croke attributed to capacity leaving the market and the difficulty of finding truckers.

A reckoning over dock hours

If demand returns while truckers stay scarce, Croke said carriers may have to rethink how they pay. He said he does not know whether that means annual salaries or pay for every hour worked, but that scarce truckers will have to be paid for every hour they work, including the two hours at the dock. "There's a reckoning coming," he said.

Owner-operators and costs

Croke does not expect a repeat of the pandemic-era rush into truck ownership. He said the barriers are higher: lenders tightened credit after many carriers failed, and he called insurance a big obstacle. He also pointed to fuel. "Diesel could be the biggest story of our lifetime if it doesn't get under control really quickly," he said.

His advice for carriers trying to keep truckers goes beyond pay. Utilization matters, he said: give them the miles, avoid deadheading and avoid having trucks sit on loading docks.

Quick facts

• Source of all figures and quotes: Croke, as reported by The Trucker.
• Index high: 170.04 in June 2026; September: 154.13; January 2023: 141.9.
• Spot rates: about 35% higher year over year, per Croke.
• Contract rates: repricing about 12% to 15% higher, per Croke.

Big Rig Daily has also covered how enforcement is pulling unqualified drivers off the market and what inspectors check under the English proficiency rule. To see what truckers earn where you live, use the truck driver pay by state guide and the pay per mile calculator.

A question for readers

Should truckers be paid for every hour they spend at the dock, and how would that change the way you plan your week?

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