Trucking News · Nationwide · November 1, 2026

Freight Cycles Run Long, and Truckers Should Not Expect Rates to Fall Fast, a FreightWaves Analyst Says

By Big Rig Daily Staff

Truckers who are enjoying firmer freight rates may wonder how long they will last, and a FreightWaves analyst says history points to patience. In his Chart of the Week, Zach Strickland of FreightWaves wrote on Oct. 31 that freight cycles are anything but regular, but that they tend to last longer than most people expect.

The latest numbers

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures the base rate without fuel and accessorial charges, rose 10% in September. Freight volumes were up 2%.

How the last cycle played out

Strickland describes the longest freight recession of the 2000s as running from early 2022 through the 2025 holiday season. "We are now approaching a year into a new cycle," he writes.

What happened the last time rates turned up

He notes that the number of active trucking authorities rose about 15% from early 2017 to early 2019. Celadon and New England Motor Freight both failed in 2019.

The takeaway

"History suggests that 12 months is the low end for how long this cycle will last," Strickland writes. He adds that anyone betting on rates easing quickly is also betting on a broader economic slowdown.

Related reading

For more on the market, see Big Rig Daily's reports on truckload contract rates resetting 13% higher and on diesel up 69% in a year alongside freight rates. Owner-operators weighing a purchase may also want the report on buying a truck when freight rates are higher.

A note on limits

This is one analyst's reading of history, not a prediction from Big Rig Daily. Rates depend on fuel, regulation, the economy and many other factors.

Quick facts

• Cass Truckload Linehaul Index: up 10% in September.
• Volumes: up 2%.
• Last freight recession: early 2022 through the 2025 holiday season.
• Analyst view: 12 months is the low end of how long a cycle lasts.
• Source: FreightWaves Chart of the Week by Zach Strickland, Oct. 31, 2026.

FAQ

What is the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index?

It measures the base rate for truckload freight without fuel and accessorial charges. It rose 10% in September, according to FreightWaves.

How long do freight cycles last?

The analyst says history suggests 12 months is the low end, and the new cycle is approaching a year old.

What is the risk to the FreightWaves analyst's freight cycle view?

He notes that anyone betting on rates easing quickly is also betting on a broader economic slowdown.

A question for readers

Do you think the stronger rates are here to stay, or will they fade by spring?

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